October 2026 Long Range Weather Forecast
October 2026 is a structured spring transition month, moving from an early frontal rainfall phase into a defined severe storm cycle mid month and a continued but less volatile trough driven phase late in the period. Rainfall is event driven and unevenly distributed, with the majority of totals linked to the 19 to 25 October severe storm cycle. Above average rainfall is favoured across southern Australia, the west sits near average, and eastern and south-eastern regions remain marginal to below average. Fire weather risk stays elevated where rainfall is limited, particularly across eastern NSW and eastern QLD.
Key takeaways
Full forecast
HEP weekly maps
HEP: 1-4 October 2026 (1-4 October 2026)
Frontal system activity 1 to 4 October SW WA. Severe storms likely across the southern interior including the southwest coast. Focused rainfall through SE WA and SA, becoming more scattered into inland NSW; wetter period 2 to 4th. Hot dry NW flow ahead of the front through the western interior leads to elevated fire risk, with dry thunderstorms through the interior and southeast able to ignite fires. Coastal activity for the SW coast and adjacent inland districts of SW WA. Storms build through SE WA, SW SA and southern SA, becoming more scattered into the east.
HEP: 10-13 October 2026 (10-13 October 2026)
Week two is a build up phase prior to the major cycle due 18 to 25th. An inland trough establishes 10 to 13th, with a NW to SE cloud band streaming tropical moisture into the interior and south. An upper trough directs NW to SE flow along the primary thunderstorm corridor. Storms become severe but generally scattered, with isolated heavy falls increasing by the 18th. Frontal activity enhances storms across southern districts 15 to 18th while drawing the northern airmass to the southeast. This is the first major storm outbreak of the 2026 spring.
HEP: 19-25 October 2026 (19-25 October 2026)
High Energy Period 19 to 25 October supports a slow moving inland trough and severe thunderstorms across large parts of the interior and east. The inland trough corridor builds from mid month and remains dominant through late October. NW to SE flow via the Arafura sinks into the inland trough, generating thunderstorms that shift E to SE through the NT, SA, VIC, NSW and parts of QLD. Severe storm risk for much of the interior and east, with hail events likely through southern SA, VIC, eastern NSW and eastern QLD. Scattered and isolated storms through the SE interior of WA into western SA, thickening once the trough deepens through central longitudes. Rainfall is heavily dependent on storm corridor tracks.
HEP: 27 October - 1 November 2026 (27 October - 1 November 2026)
The inland trough shifts east towards the coast by late month. Embedded low pressure leads to enhanced rainfall along the QLD coast from Central Queensland south to NE NSW and adjacent inland regions. Residual storms occur across the interior as the major feature shifts east. Widespread storms persist from mid October into end of month as the slow moving trough shifts from the interior to the east coast. Monitor for early tropical low development about the Gulf late month, which may become part of the east coast trough and lead to enhanced falls. A ridge builds across the Southern Ocean late month as the eastern trough deepens, with coastal showers and storms for the southern WA and western SA coast. The wettest period for October is focused from the 23rd to the 1st of November.
Rainfall anomaly outlook
High Energy Period schedule
A frontal system builds through south-west Australia, initiating the first rainfall phase. Hot north-westerly winds ahead of the front extend across eastern WA, SA, NSW and VIC, with gusty and dry conditions supporting elevated fire risk. Moisture increasing through south-east WA supports scattered thunderstorm development from south-east WA across SA into VIC and inland NSW. The wettest period is 2 to 4 October, most effective across southern districts, particularly SA and VIC, while eastern regions see patchy and variable outcomes.
A weaker frontal system and shortwave trough generate a secondary instability phase, with renewed north-westerly winds and warming, scattered and often high based thunderstorms, and limited rainfall efficiency. Stronger outcomes favour the southern inland districts while rainfall penetration into eastern regions is reduced. Fire risk is elevated, particularly across NSW and QLD. This phase acts as a precursor to the major mid month system.
The dominant weather event of the month and the first major severe storm outbreak of the season. A strong system develops with hot north-westerly pre frontal winds, deep trough formation and strong moisture inflow into southern and central Australia, supporting high energy thunderstorms with potential for damaging to destructive winds, large hail, heavy rainfall and intense lightning. Storms focus strongest across SA, VIC, southern NSW and TAS, extend into central inland regions, and reach southern and south-east QLD and northern NSW with less consistent coverage. Above average rainfall is favoured across southern Australia while eastern regions remain variable. Fire risk persists in eastern NSW and eastern QLD where rainfall is limited.
A slow moving inland trough maintains storm potential into late October, positioned across the NT and SA interior and shifting east with continued north-west to south-east flow. This supports ongoing thunderstorm development and locally heavy rainfall, particularly inland. The trough shifts east towards the coast late month, with embedded low pressure leading to enhanced rainfall along the QLD coast from Central Queensland south to north-east NSW and adjacent inland regions. Southern regions may continue to see near to above average totals while the east remains marginal overall. The wettest period for October is focused from the 23rd to the 1st of November.
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